Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.234035 0.272312 0.314193 0.363328 0.419296 0.480965 0.553960
2025-11-23 0.163080 0.213368 0.274267 0.352996 0.451586 0.570428 0.723936
2025-11-30 0.135707 0.193516 0.268869 0.373268 0.512974 0.692127 0.937660
2025-12-07 0.107499 0.165217 0.245382 0.363190 0.529867 0.754849 1.078527
2025-12-14 0.086774 0.142657 0.224796 0.351939 0.540769 0.807163 1.206634
2025-12-21 0.071867 0.125682 0.208967 0.344060 0.553569 0.860898 1.338788
2025-12-28 0.063074 0.116591 0.203309 0.349901 0.586010 0.944275 1.519056
2026-01-04 0.057016 0.110902 0.201954 0.361738 0.627989 1.044361 1.731114
2026-01-11 0.051139 0.104486 0.198332 0.368990 0.662641 1.135055 1.934647
2026-01-18 0.045535 0.097608 0.192862 0.372121 0.690185 1.215819 2.127476
2026-01-25 0.040363 0.090682 0.186292 0.372281 0.712150 1.288409 2.311290
2026-02-01 0.035559 0.083687 0.178614 0.369343 0.727970 1.351251 2.482458
2026-02-08 0.031076 0.076731 0.170303 0.364611 0.740690 1.410783 2.654347
2026-02-15 0.026417 0.068602 0.158596 0.351976 0.737579 1.442385 2.780400
2026-02-22 0.025315 0.068362 0.163074 0.371992 0.798135 1.592223 3.125759
2026-03-01 0.021858 0.061926 0.153473 0.361928 0.798915 1.632297 3.274982
2026-03-08 0.018804 0.055903 0.143911 0.350711 0.796058 1.664864 3.411858
2026-03-15 0.016393 0.051063 0.136343 0.342857 0.799117 1.708520 3.571824
2026-03-22 0.015100 0.048983 0.134978 0.348679 0.831261 1.810840 3.850136
2026-03-29 0.014259 0.048015 0.136176 0.360479 0.877141 1.943311 4.194879
2026-04-05 0.013252 0.046377 0.135481 0.367708 0.913527 2.058835 4.512799
2026-04-12 0.012147 0.044236 0.133199 0.370829 0.940903 2.157481 4.802465
2026-04-19 0.011031 0.041832 0.129886 0.370989 0.961420 2.242909 5.069857